I also thought you had another post up...that I had not responded too as yet.
Maybe I'll do such a model today.
My models are what they are. I wish I could claim they're accurate examples of what might happen over real Earth, using Eznec's Real Earth feature, or in free space, but I can't do that. They're just something to consider, and that's all, but I don't think they're that far off.
I prefer to compare free space models, but most guys don't appreciate what free space models are suppose to show us or do. Guys get all bent, because they hear stuff saying free space models are theoretical, hypothetical, aren't real, don't exists, and don't represent what we see with real installations or worse yet, complain about how Eznec can't handle Real Earth features. This is why no right minded scientest depends on theory alone, without testing and duplicating real world tests...showing comparitive trend line results.
Before I took up modeling, Bob85 and I use to discuss the issue about free space models. I was tending to agree with Bob's comment, "...my antennas are not in free space." That made perfect sense to me, and it is true, but after gaining some understanding of modeling, and the way and the reasons I think Eznec provides a free space model feature, I've changed my mind on the subject. But, it's just not worth the time or trouble to try and explain.
If I wasn't curious or had questions on the issues you and others raise, then I probably wouldn't even considered suggestions. I just do these models to see what happens, and if I can explain. That said however, sometimes I'm surprised, and sometimes I'm confused, but much of the time it seems the results support what I imagine, and sometimes I have a change of mind.
For me, the big reasons real world results differ from what Real Earth modeling might show us, besides the issues with modeling errors, input, and limitations, is the construction, conditions, losses, and environment within and around our antennas.
The brilliance of modeling is the speed with which the basic math and science, developed years ago, can process the characteristics of these physical wires we call antennas.
In your last sentence, what graph are you talking about, my hand made signal reports?