On sheer dissipation, two 3cx800's have 100 watts more. New tubes, a 3cx800 is about $600 each new, while the 3cx1500 is around $900 new. They are probably about an even match.
As others have mentioned though, it's not just about tube dissipation. It is about efficiency and also about the capabilities of other components in the system. A transformer rated at 2000 KVA ICAS probably isn't going to cut it for legal limit no keydown time. If you want an amp that can run day and night at us legal limit in any mode, you might look at converting an older military amp such as the AM-3924, part of the URT-23 transmitter. It has two 4cx1500's and will run full power out 24/7.
If I had to choose, I would probably choose the twin 3cx800's. A couple of reasons.
1. it's easier to cool two tubes that it is one. There is more surface area to cool and typically you will need a smaller cfm blower. The two tubes will also present less backpressure to the blower.
2. in the case of the 3cx800's, you can also switch to 3cpx800's and increase the plate voltage, see example here:
http://www.hamradiomarket.com/articles/Titan P Hybrid.htm. It simply adds options to your available tube list
3. Did i mention the blower? Also, less blower noise since it is smaller and requires less airflow.
Paul