https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf
Interesting theory and quite a difference in previous studies.
Who's right only time will tell.
Clip from one conclusion:
"Our method predicts that SC25 will probably be among the strongest solar cycles ever observed and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (116 spots) and most likely stronger than the previous." (I.E. SC23 @ 150 spots)
"
"Very early indications of the spot pattern are appearing at higher than average latitudes (∼40◦)30. Historically, high latitude spot emergence has been associated with the development of large amplitude sunspot cycles —only time will tell."
If this is anywhere close to true. All bands above 40 meters (20/17/15/10 meters plus even 6 meters) will at one point reach levels where they will be open 24/7...Local chatting will go away as the band openings will cloud cover almost anything in the 0-200 mile range...
I remember the 80's cycle (SC21/250+ spots) when on 10 meters without 500 watts was almost impossible to talk inside of 50 miles away due to the signal strength of the stations coming in, even at night.
It was common for mobile stations in the 25-watt range to be S9+ coming from the 1000++ mile path, it was crazy!
Without a good beam antenna and having serious F/B rejection, working stations in one specific direction was almost not possible. (I.E. Central US to Aisa/ S Pacific) Euro's were too strong even via long path!
Vertical antennas were almost useless as so many signals coming thru from so many paths made it difficult to hear a given area or specific DX station.
We will see!
All the Best
Gary
Interesting theory and quite a difference in previous studies.
Who's right only time will tell.
Clip from one conclusion:
"Our method predicts that SC25 will probably be among the strongest solar cycles ever observed and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (116 spots) and most likely stronger than the previous." (I.E. SC23 @ 150 spots)
"
"Very early indications of the spot pattern are appearing at higher than average latitudes (∼40◦)30. Historically, high latitude spot emergence has been associated with the development of large amplitude sunspot cycles —only time will tell."
If this is anywhere close to true. All bands above 40 meters (20/17/15/10 meters plus even 6 meters) will at one point reach levels where they will be open 24/7...Local chatting will go away as the band openings will cloud cover almost anything in the 0-200 mile range...
I remember the 80's cycle (SC21/250+ spots) when on 10 meters without 500 watts was almost impossible to talk inside of 50 miles away due to the signal strength of the stations coming in, even at night.
It was common for mobile stations in the 25-watt range to be S9+ coming from the 1000++ mile path, it was crazy!
Without a good beam antenna and having serious F/B rejection, working stations in one specific direction was almost not possible. (I.E. Central US to Aisa/ S Pacific) Euro's were too strong even via long path!
Vertical antennas were almost useless as so many signals coming thru from so many paths made it difficult to hear a given area or specific DX station.
We will see!
All the Best
Gary
