BJ radionut
Supporting Member and 6m addict
We find that the average strength of the polar fields near the end of Cycle 24 will be similar to (or slightly weaker) that measured near the end of Cycle 23, indicating that Cycle 25 will be similar in strength (or slightly weaker) to the current cycle. After four years of simulation the variability across our ensemble indicates that the accumulated uncertainty is on the order of about 15%. This uncertainty arises from stochastic variations in the convective motion details, the active region tilt, and changes in the meridional flow. In addition, small cycles (like cycle 24) are typically preceded by long extended minima, and so we expect a similar long extended minimum before Cycle 25.
Detailed information from this observation and prediction on Cycle 25 can be found here:
http://solarcyclescience.com/forecasts.html#Cycle 25 Prediction
Another Groups prediction info is here, stating Cycle 25 has started with peak(lower than 24) in late 2023 early 2024:
This info/prediction can be found here:
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/201...eveals-his-solar-cycle-25-prediction-at-last/
Different schools of thought but similar in regards to when (+/- 2 years) as to when the next Cycle 25 begins to rebound.
We will see what happens. Personally I hope both scenarios are wrong!
I want to see a 1980 type peak! I however think that will likely not occur
All the Best
Gary