Solar Cycle 25 Now Expected to Peak This Year

[BC Coyote]

Just stumbled on this rather interesting article which says scientist from NOAA got there solar forecast very wrong and it will peak much earlier (this year) and much stronger than expected. Fire up those radios and get talkin'........... conditions might start going downhill as early as next year.

Scientists finally acknowledge that they got their solar cycle predictions wrong, and that we are fast approaching the sun's explosive peak

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center has released a "revised prediction" for the current solar cycle, which states that the upcoming solar maximum will arrive sooner and be more explosive than they initially forecast — as Live Science previously reported.

www.livescience.com

 

[Eldorado828]

Just stumbled on this rather interesting article which says scientist from NOAA got there solar forecast very wrong and it will peak much earlier (this year) and much stronger than expected. Fire up those radios and get talkin'........... conditions might start going downhill as early as next year.

Scientists finally acknowledge that they got their solar cycle predictions wrong, and that we are fast approaching the sun's explosive peak

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center has released a "revised prediction" for the current solar cycle, which states that the upcoming solar maximum will arrive sooner and be more explosive than they initially forecast — as Live Science previously reported.

www.livescience.com

I'd heard that a few months ago and I think there's even a thread here where it's mentioned.

It's only a forecast though so we'll see how it really pans out.

 

[DXman]

If it's going to peak this year then it better hurry up - only a month & half left and the year will be over...

 

[Shadetree Mechanic]

Either it's going to get really good really quick, or the peak will be what we have now......

 

[ForestRunner98]

What a rip off!!

 

[Klondike Mike]

WTF? I don't believe it. More global warming woke-ness. I don't have the credentials but glancing at the graph, I would interpret the data as showing a ramp up to a great peak with the overall timeline being the same as it has been for the last billion years. I'm only guessing on the billion years. Maybe 2 billion.

 

[BC Coyote]

I suspect that the peak is what we are having right now. Or we are very close to it.

Conditions on 11 meters for the last couple months have been amazing at times, and generally pretty good the rest of the time (minus a few days with radio blackouts from flares).
When Europe is heard regularly on the west coast of North America, as has been the case lately, it is a pretty sure sign we are near the top of the solar cycle. That was certainly the case during cycles 22, 23 and 24.

No need to panic too much though fellow radioheads ! Remember, there are many forms of propagation and not all of them are controlled by the solar cycles; in fact only F and F2 propagation is really affected by those cycles. E skip is much more related to seasonal changes in the ionosphere, and not so much on the sun.

My experience has been that solar minimums certainly produce a lot less of the really long distance contacts but there are still plenty of times when conditions happen and contacts, especially via E-skip, get made.

 

[357]

just like that "atmospheric river" trash

 

[BC Coyote]

Sorry guys... I agree the global warming stuff is mostly a bunch of hooey, but I'm struggling to make the connection between that subject and the sunspot cycle.....

Nobody knows with any certainty what the climate did for thousands of years, but anyone with a half-way decent telescope & filter can see the sunspots for themselves. It's not like there is any doubt that they are there.
And you can see more of them when the cycle is high, and less when it is low, so that doesn't seem to be up for debate either.....
And we know more sunspots generally equals better 11 meter conditions.....

Pretty sure it has nothing at all to do with wokeness LOL!

 

[RollingStone]

Let the GOOD TIME'S ROLL